SUMMARY

This is a rematch of last year's qualifying final, won handsomely by Richmond. Brisbane could not be better placed to break its drought over the Tigers, coming into the finals on the back of a seven-game winning streak. However, all the pressure will be on the home team, trying to not only learn the harsh lessons from a straight games' finals exit last year, but also snap a 15-game losing streak to the reigning premiers.

WHERE AND WHEN: The Gabba, Friday October 2, 7.50pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 10: Richmond 12.10 (82) d Brisbane 4.17 (41)
As the scoreline suggests, the Lions were guilty of frittering away chances in front of goal and the Tigers did not need a second invitation. Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch kicked seven goals between them and Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton were prolific midfield performers as the premier punished a wasteful Brisbane for the second straight time.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Richmond
The Tigers have damaged their counterparts on turnover the past couple of matches, taking advantage of a Lions' defensive unit that really tries to compress the ground. Any turnover is countered by two to three forward handballs into the corridor and away the Tigers go. Noah Balta may be the least experienced of the key backline players, but he kept Eric Hipwood to just six disposals in round 10, so watch for him to get the initial match-up against the Lions spearhead.

Brisbane
Although it preaches team defence, someone has to be responsible for Dustin Martin when he goes forward. The dual Norm Smith medalist ripped the corresponding game apart with six goals last year and has often feasted against the Lions. Darcy Gardiner, or more likely Brandon Starcevich, should get the nod there. Brisbane will not want to get caught up in Richmond's helter-skelter style, so don't be surprised if they slow the ball movement down, particularly if it concedes successive goals.

WHAT THE STATS SAY

1. Richmond has a perfect record at the Gabba in the past decade – 7-0 against the Lions and 9-0 overall (including wins over Sydney and Gold Coast this season). Its average winning margin over that stretch has been 39 points a game.

2. The Tigers don't care too much for clearances. They are ranked 17th in the competition for clearance differential and 16th for scores from stoppages. They do however score more points than any other team from turnovers.

3. When Brisbane kicks the ball inside its forward 50 it wants Dayne Zorko doing so. The Lions retain the ball 62.5 percent of the time and take a mark 31.3 percent of the time when their skipper does so – ranking No.1 in both measures of the top 50 players for total kicks into the forward 50.

4. Nick Vlastuin is a Tiger to keep an eye on. Vlastuin won a tick over seven intercept possessions a game this season, third in the competition, and just more than three intercept marks a game, good enough for fourth in the AFL.

5. Former No.1 draft pick Cam Rayner comes into these finals as the biggest improving Lion over the past month. Rayner has gone from an average of 6.2 AFL Player Ratings points a game in the first 13 matches to 10.1 over the past four.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …

It's a big ask that your first game since round five is a qualifying final, however, that's what Dion Prestia faces after recovering from his syndesmosis injury. If anyone can handle it though, it's the super-fit midfield dynamo who won the Tigers' best and fairest in 2019.

Richmond faced a budding Brisbane outifit in a qualifying final after toppling them in the corresponding game last year and looking to extend its winning streak against the Lions to 16.

The Lions were able to do what they hadn’t done for the previous 15 outings though, beat Richmond, winning through to a home preliminary final by 15 points.

The Tigers started the better, but Brisbane took learnings into this contest, wearing down the defending champions with grit, will and youthful exuberance, finishing, 10.9 (69) to 8.6 (54).

The last time Brisbane beat Richmond was 2009 and, in that year, a young Daniel Rich goaled in an elimination final win against Carlton.

Rich’s next goal in a final was the opener in the 2020 second qualifying final against the Tigers which nearly lifted the Gabba from its foundations.

Brisbane needed to start well, and it did, with the first centre clearance and opening goal.

The guttural reverberating around the ground would unhinge most sides, but not the Tigers.

Dustin Martin has feasted on the Lions for near-on a decade, and he began this final in the middle, and dazzled from the outset.

Martin streamed from congestion at half-forward, eyeing a leading Jack Riewoldt in the corridor and at the last moment, pulled the kick into the path of Riewoldt who marked.

Riewoldt kicked the Tigers’ first in last year’s qualifying final win and buttered up again this year, piercing the goals with his set-shot.

The Lions responded before Liam Baker kicked his first goal of 2020.

Baker, surging off half-back held his width and as Daniel Rioli pinned Dayne Zorko on the opposite forward flank, Richmond took the advantage, the ball finding its way into the hands of Baker who goaled on the run from the arc.

Brisbane hit back again.

Trent Cotchin has a knack of sensing and seizing the moment in big finals and he did so again with an opening-term goal.

Cotchin accepted a handball on the paint of 50, shrugged off an overcommitted tackler, surged forward, steadied and snapped truly on his left.

It was his first goal of the year and it couldn’t have come at a better time in the first quarter.

Kamdyn McIntosh put the Tigers in front for the first time in the game, which meant they held a slight advantage at the first break.

Charlie Cameron then levelled the scores early in the second term before Jason Castagna recaptured the lead for the Tigers.

Brisbane then absorbed a barrage of Tiger entries inside 50 before counter punching with venom and vigour.

The Lions slammed on three unanswered goals at the back-end of the second term, as they led by 13 points at half-time.

Brisbane had a plan to unnerve and rattle the Tigers, and for a short period it did.

The Lions started the third term as they’d finished the second, as Cameron scooted onto a crumb inside 50 and snapped his third major.

Richmond lacked fluency and flow with ball in hand, something that has not been said about the Tigers for a long time, and it simply couldn’t hold the ball in its front half.

The Tigers looked a little shaky, but they held their resolve.

Rioli pegged one back for Richmond as he teamed with Castagna to keep their side in touch.

However, Brisbane hit back once again and extended their lead to 21 points by the final change.

To win, the Tigers would have to complete the greatest comeback of 2020, as no side has won after being more than 16 points down at three-quarter-time.

In Damien Hardwick’s reign, the largest three-quarter-time margin that Richmond has overcome was 20 points.

The largest three-quarter time margin that Richmond had surpassed in a final was 14 points, so history was against them, but it was there for the Tigers to re-write.

Richmond would have had to look no further for inspiration than David Astbury’s lunging goal-saving tackle on the siren.

The nerves of the Lions started to quiver as Rioli struck the first goal of the final term.

The Arc then denied Shai Bolton one of the great Richmond finals goals as he shimmied past Rich on the boundary line, he then dribbled through what looked like a goal off his left boot.

It was reviewed and was confirmed that it had grazed the post.

Riewoldt then marked strongly at the top of the square and goaled, drawing the margin back to nine points.

Hugh McCluggage then sealed a preliminary final berth for his side after his right-foot snapped sailed through.

If Richmond is good enough to win next week against either St Kilda or the Western Bulldogs, it will have to travel to the Adelaide Oval to face Port Adelaide in a hostile preliminary final.

BRISBANE 3.1 7.2 9.6 10.9 (69)
RICHMOND 4.1 5.1 6.3 8.6 (54)

GOALS
Brisbane: Cameron 3, Bailey, McCluggage, McInerney, McStay, Neale, Rayner, Rich
Richmond: Riewoldt 2, Rioli 2, Baker, Castagna, Cotchin, McIntosh

BEST
Brisbane: McCluggage, Rich, Cameron, Lyons, Neale, Zorko
Richmond: Prestia, Short, Lambert, Cotchin, Martin

INJURIES
Brisbane: Nil
Richmond: Nil