SUMMARY
While Richmond (15-7) returns to the September stage for the first time since 2001, Carlton (11-11) finished ninth but will play finals in Essendon's place. It is a dramatic scenario for a match that promises plenty in front of a bumper MCG crowd. Despite Richmond's narrow win in round one, the Blues have dominated recent clashes between the arch rivals, winning 10 of the last 11 contests, including nine consecutive wins between 2008 and 2012. Chris Newman is set to play his first final after 232 games in a team with just 17 games of finals experience (all played at previous clubs). Carlton, meanwhile, has 92 combined games finals experience. In a knockout final, will form through 2013 or experience on the big stage prove more telling?
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Sunday September 8, 3.20pm
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide and odds
LAST FIVE TIMES
R21, 2013, Carlton 16.10 (106) d Richmond 14.12 (96) at the MCG
R1, 2013, Richmond 14.22 (106) d Carlton 14.17 (101) at the MCG
R18, 2012, Carlton 14.11 (95) d Richmond 13.13 (91) at the MCG
R1, 2012, Carlton 18.17 (125) d Richmond 12.9 (81) at the MCG
R15, 2011, Carlton 28.16 (184) d Richmond 12.9 (81) at the MCG
2013 MEETINGS
Round one at the MCG: Richmond 14.22 (106) def Carlton 14.17 (101): In a thriller befitting its round-one blockbuster status, the Tigers looked a million bucks when they stormed to a 42-point lead midway through the third term. The Blues came home hard and only a few late misses cost them victory. Brett Deledio and Ty Vickery were irresistible with three goals apiece for the winners, while Bryce Gibbs (34 touches, two goals) and Chris Judd (27 touches and two goals) dragged Carlton back into the contest.
Round 21 at the MCG: Richmond 14.12 (96) lost to Carlton 16.10 (106): This was the win that revived the Blues' finals hopes. They trailed by five goals at quarter time, but dominated thereafter at the MCG. Hard nuts Brock McLean and Mitch Robinson led the way, with Carlton winning the clearances 45-35. Tigers Trent Cotchin (knee), Ricky Petterd (left ankle) and Jack Riewoldt (right knee) suffered minor injuries. Ty Vickery booted three goals.
KEY MATCH-UPS
Ed Curnow v Trent Cotchin: Cotchin was held to a season-low 14 possessions in round 21, with Curnow drilling in on the Richmond skipper. Game-breaker Brett Deledio remains an option as the Blues' No.1 target, and he was a star in round one, kicking 3.1 from 17 possessions. Cotchin had 33 touches in that clash, with Curnow missing. The Blues may not be playing finals were it for not for Curnow's efforts in the fourth quarter against Port Adelaide. He held a rampaging Brad Ebert to two possessions after he'd racked up 21 and four goals in the first three terms.
Michael Jamison v Jack Riewoldt: In round one, Riewoldt was used in a new role, pushing high up the ground to take Jamison out of his comfort zone. The spearhead finished with 0.4 and 15 possessions, but was praised by Damien Hardwick for his "significant" role, with Luke McGuane and Ty Vickery combining for five goals. In round 21, Riewoldt kicked his two goals and set up others early before Jamison was moved onto him, shutting the dual Coleman medallist down. Riewoldt missed the Tigers' round 23 clash with a back injury, while Jamison battled against Port's Jay Schulz (four goals).
Zach Tuohy v Dustin Martin: It was a surprise move by the Blues to use usual lockdown defender Tuohy on midfield bull Martin when they last met in round 21, but it proved a masterstroke, and one of the keys to Carlton's upset victory. Martin had averaged 29 disposals over his previous five games, but the Irishman restricted him to a career-low 10 touches and, for the first time this season, no clearances. Tuohy had 11 possessions himself and managed to kick a long goal and pump the ball inside 50 twice. Martin failed to lay a single tackle, so expect him to be more physical this time.
WILDCARDS
Richmond: Jake King
Fiery forward King has played two games after missing a month with a hamstring injury, building back into form. His value on Sunday will be in his ability to harass Carlton's defenders and create goals with his defensive pressure. A fire-starter with his physical approach, King also has the ability to lift his teammates with his enthusiasm.
Carlton: The small forwards
They are often nominated as a collective X-factor, but 'The Three Amigos' – indigenous opportunists Eddie Betts, Chris Yarran and Jeff Garlett – are very much a barometer for the Blues. Each has had his challenges this season, and have tested the patience of their coaches and fans, but there are great signs that they are ready to explode against the Tigers.
PLAN B
Richmond: Damien Hardwick is fortunate that his midfield boasts both depth and flexibility. If Deledio is targeted, he can be moved to half-back to set up play. If Martin is not involved, he can be pushed forward, where his size is a significant threat if he is playing on a smaller opponent. With midfielders like Reece Conca, Brandon Ellis, Shaun Grigg and Nick Vlastuin available, Carlton will be kept guessing as to how Deledio and Martin will be used on Sunday.
Carlton: Versatile key-position stars Lachie Henderson and Jarrad Waite provide the Blues with crucial flexibility. Coach Mick Malthouse would probably prefer to use both of his big guns in attack, but the loss of key defender Matthew Watson to injury in round 20 has forced a reshuffle. Levi Casboult has returned to the forward line, while Waite has spent time shoring up his team's defence. As a last resort, Carlton can deploy Henderson to the back half, but this would be robbing them of their chief forward target.
THE SIX POINTS
1. The Tigers have played only two previous elimination finals. In 1975 they defeated Collingwood by four points at Waverley Park, and in 1977 they defeated South Melbourne by 34 points at Waverley Park. Carlton has played in seven previous elimination finals for three wins.
2. This will be the 23rd finals clash between the Tigers and Blues and Richmond holds a clear advantage, winning 16 games to five, with one draw.
3. There’s a huge difference between the coaches when it comes to finals experience, Mick Malthouse will be coaching in his 20th final series and this will be his 51st final for 26 wins, 22 losses and two draws. Damian Hardwick will be coaching in his first final.
4. Malthouse will also create history by coaching a fourth team into the finals (Footscray, West Coast, Collingwood and now Carlton). No coach has previously achieved this.
5. The highest Elimination final attendance is 90,370 for Carlton v Essendon in 2011 at the MCG. Richmond’s highest non Grand Final attendance is 108,279 for a 1969 preliminary final against Collingwood.
6. The reinvention of midfielder Daniel Jackson has been one of the great success stories of Richmond's season. Released from his run-with duties, Jackson has averaged 22.4 possessions and shot up the Official AFL Player Ratings ladder as a result. After winning 30 possessions and kicking two goals against Essendon in round 23, he has moved to No.110 overall. Jackson started the season ranked No.254.
