IT IS the perfect storm for one of the toughest Phantom Drafts yet.
A very even draft all the way through the first round, a year without an obvious No.1 pick and clubs with multiple selections galore – 12 clubs own the first 26 selections, making the game-playing and cat-and-mouse at high stakes. The possibilities of trading, too, has added an extra degree of unpredictability.
The uncertainty has clubs predicting surprises while not being sure who gets through to their respective selections and how it will shake out, other than believing the early stages of this year's draft has plenty of depth.
Here is AFL.com.au's Phantom Draft for 2024. It includes where bids on father-son and Academy players may come, meaning the draft order in this top-30 has changed from how the draft order will begin. On Tuesday evening, we will release a late mail Phantom Draft as well, ahead of the first round of the Telstra AFL Draft taking place on Wednesday night.
It is the most even race for the No.1 pick in some time but the Tigers are poised to snare the gamebreaker in the pack. Where previous years had standout contenders, all of the top candidates this season have been very evenly ranked. Lalor's season was hit by different injury problems, including groin, hip and a hamstring strain to finish the year and saw him sit out of the Rebels' ascent to the Coates Talent League Grand Final. He is a powerful, explosive midfielder who likes a fend-off, a high mark, kicks goals at important stages of games and has genuine leadership within him. He has had all of the top-five clubs – Richmond, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Carlton and Melbourne – be in touch for chats or interviews over the past week or so and is the favourite to be crowned No.1. If not him? It has really come down to two – Lalor or Finn O'Sullivan. The Tigers have still been keen on O'Sullivan and he is the other significant contender, having spoken with Richmond on Monday, but Lalor looks the guy.
The Kangaroos saw O'Sullivan’s talents up close during the pre-season when he trained at the club and his traits have been on show through the year. O'Sullivan has the dancing feet. He quickly adjusts to pressure coming around him and makes sharp decisions. Injury issues this year meant he didn't produce his consistent best, but it came off a bottom-age campaign where he was very exciting and claimed All-Australian honours as a Vic Country 17-year-old. His back-end to the season with the Oakleigh Chargers and also Richmond's VFL side saw O'Sullivan produce some of his trademark spins out of trouble and his overhead marking is very good for a midfielder. He has a hard edge to his game and is a high impact prospect.
If not him? The Roos have had talks about moving this pick, with Adelaide looming as their main trade contender if they slide back. It looks unlikely now. South Adelaide midfielder Sid Draper is very much in the discussion for the Roos' pick if O'Sullivan is off the board, while key defender Alix Tauru is as well. Sam Lalor looks the other key candidate in this range if the Tigers went with O'Sullivan.
Carlton traded up to this pick knowing it would be able to land a gun midfielder to add to its group and Smith is the quick-thinking ball magnet. Few prospects can find the ball like Smith – in this draft or any other. He has the natural knack of knowing where to be to get it and then what to do with it. So much so that the clubs in the early rungs of the draft are all over where Smith gets taken. As a wiry, smaller midfield type he idolises Port Adelaide superstar Zak Butters and he became a very damaging midfield player particularly in the second half of this season. Smith dominated for Oakleigh, Vic Metro and then Richmond's VFL side late in the year and showed he was ready for the step up.
If not him? The Blues have taken senior coach Michael Voss to meet with Smith, Harvey Langford, Sid Draper, Sam Lalor and Finn O'Sullivan in recent times for follow-up meetings. Their player comes from that group. In the likelihood O'Sullivan is off the board then it's viewed as a race of two – Smith and Draper.
A ready-to-play weapon with genuine speed and dash from the stoppages, a penchant for crashing into contests and the temperament to be a leader straight away, Draper has been preparing for his AFL opportunity for some time. A shin stress fracture ruined the first block of his campaign this year, which came after a stellar bottom-aged year when he was South Australia's MVP at the under-18 carnival and named an All-Australian. His performances late in the year for South Adelaide's SANFL side were excellent and he would bring immediate speed to Adelaide's midfield mix.
If not him? The Crows have been strongly linked to Harvey Langford in recent times and could well go in his favour. If Jagga Smith was available then he would be a strong contender, as would Finn O'Sullivan.
The rich get richer – one of the leading midfield guns of the draft class lands at the premiership team, where he will play straight away. Ashcroft dominated his draft campaign and remarkably played in his third straight under-18 premiership for the Sandringham Dragons. He is a midfield accumulator who is adept at the clearances and stoppages and also enjoys going forward to kick a goal, which he has done regularly across the past two seasons. Ashcroft underwent shoulder surgery at the end of the season having carried the injury through his year, but knows the Lions well after training there through the pre-season program and also when he made his VFL debut this year (when he had 35 disposals, eight clearances, kicked a goal and got the three votes as best on ground). He will have his eyes on a round one debut.
If not him? Ashcroft is off to the Lions to join older brother Will at the club. It's just a matter of where the bid comes. It is considered unlikely at Richmond or North Melbourne, with the Blues and Crows also looking the same, meaning it could be left to the Dees to make the decision. He is not expected to get past them.
Langford started his season as a highly-rated player but went on to be have one of the most commanding seasons of any draftee this year, splitting games open for the Dandenong Stingrays on a weekly basis and winning the Larke Medal as the best player from the under-18 carnival for his Vic Country performances. He marks above his head, has a raking left-foot kick and boots goals. The Demons saw Langford's traits up close during the pre-season when he trained with the club and he has only flourished more and more since then.
If not him? If Langford goes to the Crows the pick ahead, then Alix Tauru looks the next leading contender for the Melbourne pick. They will also be able to wait to see if one of the other premium midfielders slides through, albeit unlikely.
Smillie has been linked to the Tigers by rivals for some time. Big-bodied, 195cm midfield bulls don't come around often and Smillie was the dominant midfielder in the first half of the season with the Eastern Ranges. He didn't have as many standout games in the second half of his campaign but remains a big ball-getter who uses it well by foot. He can play forward and tested well for his running at the Telstra AFL Draft Combine in the 2km time trial.
If not him? The Tigers have travelled to see West Australian Bo Allan in recent days and they could look to grab him here in case they don't see him getting through to their picks at 10 and 11. That is seen as a real option, as is Tobie Travaglia at this pick, which hasn't been mentioned much but is one to watch. If Alix Tauru comes into the top group then one of the midfield talents – such as Sid Draper, Jagga Smith or Harvey Langford – could also squeeze out to here and give Richmond a tough decision to make.
Some see Travaglia as one of the most bankable players in the pool. Everyone likes his capabilities, which centre around being able to run, run, run. And then run some more. He has a deep competitive streak and has the versatility to play as a half-back, midfielder and wingman, and his consistency throughout the past two years has been on show – last year he won Bendigo's best and fairest and this year he was an All-Australian after a strong carnival for Vic Country. He came second in the 2km time trial and will be able to step into a club and impress straight away in the pre-season.
If not him? The Saints could make their bid on Leo Lombard or Isaac Kako at this stage of the draft whilst they'll also wait to see if one of the top-end midfielders like Sid Draper or Harvey Langford squeezes through. If not, Xavier Lindsay is another key consideration as is Joe Berry.
The Suns will scoop up another Academy gun, with Lombard to join Gold Coast and add an immediate dose of aggression, speed, smarts and all-round muscle. Lombard has had a terrific couple of seasons, including playing in the Suns' VFL premiership in 2023 as a 16-year-old, before dominating this year for the Allies, where he was crowned a joint winner of the Larke Medal. The fast-paced small will be a burst of energy and tenacity in the Suns' front half and will be looking to make an impact from day one.
If not him? The Suns again manoeuvred their draft hand during the trade period to back out of their early picks knowing Lombard was coming and a bid would be falling early on in proceedings. He will be their first pick it is just a wait on who calls his name – if not the Saints then Richmond would be expected.
'The Flying Viking' has come from the clouds to be a likely top-10 pick. It has been a remarkable rise for him this season after injury hampered his first half of the year, but his overhead marking, intercept game, aggression and ability to stack up when it counts really shone in the second half of the year. Late in the season with Gippsland he also swung forward regularly to kick goals and take marks and he shapes as one of the key 'Could be anything' types in this year's group. If he is there at the Saints' pick then he will be hard to pass up as a long-term replacement for Josh Battle.
If not him? There's been a lot of options linked to the Saints' two picks. It would surprise if any of the other talls apart from Tauru are in the group, but Xavier Lindsay and Joe Berry could be considerations here too. The Saints could also look to trade back from this pick and clubs have been interested in the selection in the lead-up.
Allan is a man in demand and for good reason. His end to the season – on the field and off it – again highlighted to recruiters his potential value, having come back from injury to play in Peel Thunder's senior WAFL premiership and then blitz testing at the Draft Combine. He is a big, strong, tough, athletic midfielder who might start his career as a defender but can run all day, bustle through traffic and dominate around the ball. He is also considered a future leader, another appealing aspect for clubs considering him with early selections. Melbourne is right in the mix for Allan.
If not him? There’s a chance Alix Tauru gets through to this point, at which point he would be expected to be taken. Otherwise, if not Allan here then Xavier Lindsay will be strongly considered, while Tobie Travaglia and Joe Berry are also likely in the mix.
Lindsay established himself as a first-rounder at the back end of the national carnival, when he picked up 30 disposals for Vic Country against Vic Metro and locked in his All-Australian guernsey. He took that form into the back end of Gippsland Power's season, storming home with a run of consistency and taking out the Morrish medal as the competition's best player. He is a left-footed midfielder who can play anywhere around the centre square – or inside it – and has a piercing kick that complements their other mix.
If not him? In terms of the other midfielders in the group, there's a possibility the Tigers try their luck of getting Josh Smillie through to these picks. Otherwise, Bo Allan is a real contender if available, while Murphy Reid and Joe Berry have also attracted interest. With back-to-back picks they could flip it and take a tall here.
A small forward with pizzazz, skills, fun, celebrations and a healthy dose of entertainment – the Dons are ready to go wacko for Kako. Essendon needs a small forward of his quality and he would have played 20 games for a lot of AFL teams in 2024 had he been eligible. The Calder Cannons prospect and Bombers' Next Generation Academy talent can join the club under the revised Academy rules for this year due to his Iraqi heritage. Kako kicked 21.28 this season with the Cannons and also produced plenty of highlights with his nine goals for Vic Metro at the under-18 carnival.
If not him? Essendon traded out its pick No.9 with Melbourne in a big pick swaps deal during the trade period because the selection was likely to be absorbed by a bid. The Saints could place a bid with either of their top-10 picks but it's unlikely Kako is still there for Port to bid on.
Clubs expect Richmond to start looking to diversify its group of picks with one of the talls using its third and/or fourth selections, and Shanahan is right in the mix. The straight-kicking key forward pushed his stocks further up draft boards during a run of impressive games for the Bombers' VFL side late in the season. He was named in the Coates Talent League team of the year and produced some excellent games at under-18 level, including a three-goal outing for the Allies against Vic Country at the national carnival. A super straight kick for goal, Shanahan doesn't need many chances to make his impact inside-50.
If not him? Harry Armstrong has been long linked to the Tigers and it will be a tight call – as it will for Jack Whitlock around this range as well if the club goes for a key position prospect here. If it's a small, the Tigers have considered taking Joe Berry here given he likely isn't available at their next pick.
The Eagles had the 'Need for Reid' last year with Harley – do they tap into it again for a second successive year? They've done work on Murphy Reid this time around and he's in this draft range for clubs. The midfielder had a super season for Sandringham and with Vic Metro, where he was named MVP at the under-18 carnival. He kicks goals, he creates others and his skills and time with the ball stands out. He's back running and training after an ankle injury in the Dragons' Coates Talent League Grand Final saw him miss the Draft Combine.
If not him? If Bo Allan got through then he'd be the guy, but it looks unlikely. Tobie Travaglia and Xavier Lindsay would also be in the mix, while they could also go tall with Harry Armstrong, Jobe Shanahan or Jack Whitlock. Taj Hotton is another player the Eagles are understood to be considering closely.
With a left-foot cannon of a leg, Armstrong can clear the goal line from a long distance, giving him a real weapon. He booted 27 goals from 10 games for the Dragons on the way to their Coates Talent League premiership win and just found ways to kick goals even when he didn't always dominate games. Armstrong showed his athletic traits by finishing seventh in the agility test at the Draft Combine and he can jump and fly for bigger marks on his chest in pack situations. Armstrong is one of the leading talls in the group and performed well for Vic Metro after returning from a mid-season shoulder injury. Port will have the choice of a few tall forwards for its pick and Armstrong is as credentialed as any.
If not him? If Jack Whitlock was there alongside Armstrong it would be a tight call. Jobe Shanahan and Jonty Faull are others in the tall forward group. They've done late work on Murphy Reid, Taj Hotton and Bo Allan, with Allan going to be hard to pass up if he's there. The Power could lodge a bid on Isaac Kako or Leo Lombard if either is still not done.
A gun small forward who knows his way around goal but also how to get up and down the ground, use his running capacity and create for teammates as well. Berry rarely fumbles and knows where to be at the fall of the contest and he stood out during Vic Country's under-18 carnival, when he booted an equal-championships high of nine goals. Recruiters think you've either got small forward craft or you don't, and Berry has shown he has it.
If not him? It's a case of wait and see for the Dockers. If Bo Allan somehow was available he would be favourite, but it's nearly impossible to see happening unless Freo can get up the board, which it's tried. They've looked at Murphy Reid and Taj Hotton, while Xavier Lindsay and Tobie Travaglia would very much be in their sights if either is still there. They are an outside chance to also place a bid here on Brisbane Academy player Sam Marshall.
Has shaped as one of the premium key forward options in the draft class since the start of the year. Whitlock kicked 25 goals this season for the Murray Bushrangers and averaged 16 disposals a game, and he can jump for his marks, has good hands in the air and moves around the ground well for a key forward of his size and stature. He is less stand and deliver as a key forward than he is a mover up and down the ground with a work ethic. The Giants look likely to grab a tall with their assortment of picks.
If not him? His twin brother, Matt, will be in the mix as will Jonty Faull and Jobe Shanahan of the other talls. Could they spring a surprise and look at bouncy forward Ned Bowman early on?
Hotton has the agility, goalkicking skills and class with his hands to stand out and he did plenty of that for the start of the season. That included a brilliant four-goal game from 32 disposals for the Sandringham Dragons against the Oakleigh Chargers in one of the most complete performances of the draft season. He also had a promising display for the AFL Academy against Coburg's VFL side with two goals from 18 touches. Unfortunately his knee reconstruction meant clubs didn't see him after May this year and he will work through his rehab process in the first half of next season too, but a club with multiple picks such as the Giants, who are interested in Hotton, could comfortably grab him and let him return without a rush.
If not him? The Giants can spring surprises, but the players linked to them around this part of the draft are Joe Berry, Ollie Hannaford and Jesse Dattoli. They might not desperately need a small forward per se, but all of that group can do other things.
The Bulldogs are right in the hitting zone of a few talls, but that's the last thing they need so they'll be seeing if one of the top-line midfielders or small forwards can get through. Hynes pieced together a consistent season complete with some very big games among them. The strong-bodied and powerful midfielder averaged 24 disposals for the Stingrays and also kicked 15 goals to finish second in the Morrish Medal. He can turn games in the middle of the ground with his explosiveness and around goal he has good craft to out-body opponents as well as mark above his head.
If not him? Clubs believe the Bulldogs would swoop if Murphy Reid was available, with Joe Berry also in that basket. If Taj Hotton was there he would also be hard to pass up as a forward/midfield gun.
Richmond met with Dattoli last week and if the Tigers want to add a small forward/midfielder to their mix then he might be the guy. Dattoli loves the big moments and performed well in those games late in the Northern Knights' season. He's a small forward who can also be very impactful around the midfield, where his toughness, game sense and overhead marking give him a different package of weapons. He averaged 23 disposals (11 contested) and nearly two goals a game for the Knights and tends to drill his chances inside-50.
If not him? At this stage the Tigers are expected to start getting some seriously tempting offers for picks from rivals so it will be fascinating to see if they hold or move any into the future to stagger their rebuild. They could continue looking at talls, and don't be shocked if Harry Armstrong actually got through to the Tigers’ selection here. Jobe Shanahan and the Whitlocks will also be in the mix depending on how the earlier take on talls goes. They like Jasper Alger as a creative forward as well as Harry Oliver as an uncompromising half-back and will be right in the mix for Taj Hotton if he's there.
It was a barnstorming second half of the season for Faull, who returned from missing the majority of the first half of his year with a back injury to show his talents. The aggressive, competitive tall forward can clunk grabs in contested situations and had a terrific preliminary final game against the Oakleigh Chargers, when he was unstoppable with five goals. He plays with force, presence and work rate and the Swans have been linked to him.
If not him? The Swans are among the clubs that have been linked to attacking defender Luke Trainor and he is likely to be available here. There's a lot of different ways the tall forward group can fall, too, meaning either Whitlock twin or Jobe Shanahan might be preferred.
Whitlock showed he can go forward and do well, having kicked 27 goals for the Murray Bushrangers, but will be selected as a key defender who can shift forward rather than the other way around. His development across the season gave clubs a good insight into what can be to come for the 18-year-old, who is athletic and can get around the ground alongside the key forwards he will be opposing. His marking is a strength as both a defender and forward and he is trusted with the ball in hand.
If not him? One of the other talls may be preferred and still available, such as Jobe Shanahan, Jack Whitlock or Jonty Faull. Plus, the Tigers have looked closely at Thomas Sims and Harry O'Farrell, so may consider either under a certain circumstance.
Tough, tough, tough. Oliver is a brave half-back who throws himself at the contest and in front of trouble for his team. But he did more than that as a half-back this season, having been named in the under-18 All-Australian team following a consistent carnival for Vic Metro. It was probably his best patch of form for the season and he showed some speed off half-back as well as the ability to defensively lock down on opponents. Oliver has been on the Giants' radar through the year and they have lost some half-back depth with Harry Perryman and Isaac Cumming departing the club.
If not him? They could trade this pick out because clubs will be offering good future first-rounders for it. Otherwise lively half-forward Jasper Alger could be considered in this range, while midfielder Jack Ough might be a shot at some stage for the Giants.
Brisbane will get another midfielder to add to their mix in Marshall, a hard-running, ultra consistent ball-getter who barely played a bad game all year. He averaged 27 disposals and four clearances for the Allies and he completed his year with a best-on-ground showing for the Dragons in the Grand Final win over the Greater Western Victoria Rebels. The image you often see of Marshall is his long runs and getting multiple possessions in a chain and the Lions will be able to see him develop in their next wave of midfielders.
If not him? Marshall is headed to the Lions, who have done their work again to tally up enough points to match bids on Levi Ashcroft and Marshall. The Swans have shown the most rival interest in terms of a bid and Marshall has been invited to attend the opening night of the draft so is right around this stage of proceedings.
Hannaford started his season as a defender but finished it as a small forward who could move into the midfield and have maximum damage. His Grand Final performance for the Rebels, where he gathered 24 disposals and booted a goal, was excellent in a losing side and he kicked 21 goals in the final nine games of the Rebels' campaign. Hannaford has speed off the mark and a powerful burst to his game that saw him kick six and five-goal hauls late in the year.
If not him? The Swans have looked at a few forward/midfield options around this range, with Jasper Alger and Jesse Dattoli in that group. Ned Bowman is also one to watch for the Swans' picks. They have interest in the high-flyer from South Australia.
Alger is capable of some exciting things inside-50, regularly finding separation on the lead and being an aerial presence despite his medium forward size. He is good at ground level too and can create something from nothing. Alger showed some of those tricks for Vic Country at the under-18 carnival and with the Oakleigh Chargers but missed the end of their season with a finger injury.
If not him? Richmond is a club that has looked at Cooper Hynes and he will be a chance to be still up for grabs. Would the Tigers look early at one of their own in VFL prospect Sam Davidson? He has a lot of clubs keen on him in the back half of the draft but at this point they don't have any selections there.
Trainor started the year as a top-five candidate but is not among the group of 20 players invited to the first night of the draft so is not expected to feature early on. The rebounding, attacking, intercept defender is a backman who likes the ball in his hands – he goes for his marks, he kicks well and averaged 20 disposals and six marks for Vic Metro at the carnival, having also gone forward to kick the title-sealing goal with the last kick of the championships.
If not him? This will be the first pick of night two, which has traditionally become a highly sought after selection between the first and second rounds as clubs spend the day mulling trade options. So it could well be in another club's hands if the Tigers have used the rest of their allotment. Should they stay, ruckman Alex Dodson has been linked here if the club wants to add a young big man to its draft haul.
Moraes put his magnet on draft boards last season when he blitzed as a bottom-ager with the Eastern Ranges, showing his class in shifting forward and going on daring runs from the wing. He averaged 24 disposals and booted 18 goals from 12 games this year, including a five-goal haul late in the season, and knows how to use the ball to create and open up space for teammates. He has a good footy brain and runs hard – he finished top-10 in the 2km time trial at the Combine.
If not him? Ollie Hannaford or Jesse Dattoli are a chance to be available, as is Cooper Hynes through to the Dogs' second pick if they look elsewhere at their first.
Bowman shapes as an under-the-radar top-30 pick, with significant interest in this part of the draft. Announced himself as a draft prospect with perhaps the best highlight of the year – an enormous hanger mark playing for Norwood's under-18 side. It catapulted Bowman up a gear in terms of recruiter interest and he continued to show some exciting elements to his game, including his forward craft, aerial ability and goalkicking. He kicked 18 goals from 10 games for Norwood and has a good speed and endurance balance to his game.
If not him? Luke Trainor will be a consideration in the scenario he is available to the Eagles, while if they don't go tall with their first pick, then West Coast could find one around this stage. Ollie Hannaford is another around this point in contention.
