The central philosophy of the song is supremely optimistic: even when something looks like it's over it may not be - until it absolutely IS over (like, for example, there are simply no more matches to play). You get my drift. The tune was about Lenny's seemingly endless girl troubles, but this week I am turning it towards the final run home fortunes of the Tigers. I am applying the Lenny Kravitz Principle to show how the Tigers can still make the eight should certain results go our way. I have used the AFL's ladder predictor to work this out, so if you don't trust me you can try for yourselves.
The first thing to say is that the Tigers have to win every game - that much is obvious. Lose one game, and I don't care what Lenny thinks - it's over. Then, I have also tried to be realistic about who beats who and by how much. This is a subjective thing however, and everyone will have different opinions. But the general rule of thumb is that those you'd expect to win do and by margins that are probable.
The next thing to do is look at Round 21 results. I'm focussing on the key games (i.e. those involving teams in the log jam for 8th spot). Richmond beat Freo by 12 or more. Geelong beats St Kilda by 12 or more. Essendon beat Carlton by no more than 12. Collingwood beats North by 12 or more. Other victories for the round to GWS (against Melbourne), Adelaide, West Coast, Sydney & Hawthorn. Richmond's position: 11th on 40 points at 112.1%.
Then we look at Round 22 results, again focussing on the key games. Richmond beat Essendon by 12 or more. St Kilda beat GWS by no more than 60. Carlton beat Gold Coast by no more than 30. North beat Freo by at least 12. Other victories for the round to the Lions, Sydney, West Coast, Geelong and Adelaide. Richmond's position: 10th on 44 points at 112%.
Finally, we look at Round 23 results, key games emphasised. Richmond beat Port by 30 or more. North beat GWS by 12 or more. Freo beat Melb by no more than 60. Collingwood beat Essendon by 12 or more. Carlton beat St Kilda by 12 or more. Other victories for the final round to Hawthorn, Adelaide, Geelong, and the Lions. Richmond's position: 8th !! on 48 points at 113%. Finals time.
So, I'm in the camp that says that the finals are within our grasp, and our destiny for 2012 remains mainly in our hands. If we do our bit and win every game, our prospects look good.
The biggest threat is this weekend against Freo. We owe them one because they sent us into a mid-season tail spin this year. We got Pavliched, but if we stop Pavlich this weekend, I think we've a great to chance to win even if we are on their turf. We play well interstate these days.
Get past Freo and victories against the depleted Bombers and hapless Port are well within our grasp.
Optimistic? Well yes, but that's the Lenny Kravitz Principle for you. It ain't over til it's over.
Eat em alive Tigers, eat em alive
Follow Paul on Twitter @paulhoworth
